Timeline Stories

Predicting 2030: My Updated Q-Day Prediction

Based on all the recent developments I revised my Q-Day prediction and published it here: “Q-Day Revisited – RSA-2048 Broken…

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Predicting 2030: Microsoft Unveils New 4D Quantum Error-Correcting Codes

Microsoft’s quantum research team announced a new family of four-dimensional (4D) geometric quantum error-correcting codes (presented in a recent preprint…

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Predicting 2030: Oxford Shatters Quantum Fidelity Records

The Oxford team set a new world record for the accuracy of a quantum logic gate: they demonstrated single-qubit operations…

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Predicting 2031: IBM’s Roadmap to Large-Scale Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing by 2029

In June 2025, IBM made a landmark announcement outlining a clear plan to build the world’s first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum…

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Predicting 2031: Quantum Breakthrough Slashes Qubit Needs for RSA-2048 Factoring

Google researcher Craig Gidney published a paper that dramatically lowers the resources needed to break RSA-2048 encryption. The paper argues…

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Predicting 2032: Google Announces Willow Quantum Chip

In December 2024, Google unveiled a new quantum processor named “Willow,” marking a major milestone in quantum hardware, as covered…

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Predicting 2032: RSA-2048 Within Reach of 1730 Qubits

Researchers Chevignard, Fouque, and Schrottenloher introduced an optimized quantum factoring method using approximate arithmetic which showed that a 2048-bit RSA…

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Predicting 2034: New Type of Qubit

Researchers demonstrated a controllable interaction between a new type of qubits – hole-spin qubits – inside a standard silicon transistor.…

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Predicting 2034: Reliable Logical Qubit

In April 2024, Microsoft and Quantinuum announced the development of a reliable logical qubit, a milestone that, in my view,…

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Predicting 2036: Error Correction Improvement

Researchers from Nord Quantique in Quebec, Canada have just published a paper introducing a new error correction approach that could…

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Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline

The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably…

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Predicting 2032: Two-Qubit Gates 99.5% Fidelity

Researches from QuEra Computing, Harvard and MIT achieved two-qubit entangling gates with 99.5% fidelity on 60 neutral atom qubits operating…

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Predicting 2033: Over 1,000 Controllable Atomic Qubits Achieved

Researchers from TU Darmstadt just reported on the world’s first successful experiment to realise a quantum-processing architecture that contains more…

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Predicting 2033: Initial Q-Day Prediction

I summarized my latest research on Q-Day predictions in this article Q-Day Predictions: Anticipating the Arrival of Cryptanalytically Relevant Quantum…

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Predicting 2035: Google Error Correction Breakthrough

In a new article Google researchers claim a breakthrough in quantum computing error correction. Their approach achieved a 4% reduction…

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