CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q-Day Estimator)
Read about the approach and relevant attributes in the two articles above. Then use the CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q‑Day Estimator) tool below to turn assumptions into a defensible, crypto‑specific forecast. The tool converts four inputs, LQC (logical qubits), LOB (logical operations budget), QOT (logical ops/sec), and an annual growth factor, into a Composite CRQC Readiness Score and a projected “Q‑Day” (when week‑scale factoring of RSA‑2048 becomes practical). Start with Conservative / Median / Aggressive presets, then tweak to match vendor claims or your own view of roadmaps and error‑correction progress. This is intentionally focused on cryptographic breakability, not generic “quantum advantage,” so it may diverge from headline qubit counts.
For readers who want the most detailed, capability‑driven approach to forecasting Q‑Day, see my full methodology article article Path to CRQC – A Capability‑Driven Method for Predicting Q‑Day. It maps the eight technical capabilities behind CRQC, their interdependencies, and TRLs. By design, the Q‑Day Estimator and its methodology presented here are simpler and immediately usable: they compress those capabilities into three executive levers – Logical Qubit Capacity (LQC), Logical Operations Budget (LOB), and Quantum Operations Throughput (QOT) – so non‑expert users can track tangible milestones and run scenario analyses without wading through the full stack.
Another useful signal I track is vendor execution: announcements and public roadmaps from quantum hardware manufacturers, weighted by their historical hit‑rate on milestones teams that consistently deliver earn more credibility on future targets, and their claims map more directly to LQC/LOB/QOT in the estimator. See the list here: Quantum Hardware Companies and Roadmaps Comparison (2025 Edition).
[Disclaimer: this estimator is for education and scenario exploration only – it is not a prediction, guarantee, or formal risk assessment, and it should not be relied on for policy, compliance, investment, or procurement decisions. Methodology and assumptions used for this estimator: “CRQC Readiness Benchmark – Benchmarking Quantum Computers on the Path to Breaking RSA-2048.”]
CRQC Readiness Benchmark (Q-Day Estimator)
An interactive way to explore how close we may be to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) for breaking RSA-2048. Adjust assumptions below to see how the projected Q‑Day shifts. Methodology & discussion. Disclaimer: this tool is for experimentation and scenario analysis only.