Predicting 2037: 2023 Quantum Threat Timeline Report

The 2023 of the Quantum Threat Timeline Report was just published. As far as Q-Day predictions go, this is probably the best public source. The survey is run by Dr. Michele Mosca, a prominent figure in the field of quantum computing and cryptography, and the survey collected expert opinions of 37 prominent quantum computing scientists and practitioners. The results this year are almost identical to last year. This year 20 out of 37 (compared to last year’s 22 out of 40) of the respondents indicated “about 50%” likely or more likely that within 15 years a quantum computer will be able to break RSA-2048 within 24 hours. It seems that all of the research published over the last year did not convince the experts that the Q-Day arrival is accelerating.

I am adjusting my prediction towards a more pessimistic prediction in line with the experts.