Predicting 2037: 2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report
2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report surveyed 40 global quantum computing experts on timeline within which a quantum computer will be able to RSA-2048 within 24 hours. More than half (22/40) of the respondents indicated “about 50%” likely or more likely, among whom 11 indicated a “>70%” likelihood or higher for this to happen within next 15 years. This time frame appears to be a tipping point and I’ll use that as the starting point for my prediction.