The “2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report” by the Global Risk Institute, authored by Dr. Michele Mosca and Dr. Marco Piani from evolutionQ Inc. was just published. This report provides analysis of the quantum threat landscape and tries to predict the arrival of the Q-Day by polling a number of global quantum computing experts.
The report emphasizes the urgent need for a transition to quantum-safe cryptography. This transition involves developing and deploying new cryptographic tools, establishing standards, and migrating legacy systems. The report outlines three key parameters that determine the urgency of this transition: the shelf-life of the data, the migration time required for safe transition, and the threat timeline, which is the focus of this report.
The most interesting part of the report is the summary of expert opinions on quantum threat timeline. The authors surveyed 40 international leaders from academia and industry working on quantum computing. These experts provided their best estimates for the likelihood of developing a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) within various timeframes. The survey results indicate that the quantum threat will become significant relatively quickly, with a notable portion of experts predicting a non-negligible threat within the next 10 years.
The report further highlights the leading physical platforms for quantum computing, including superconducting systems and trapped ions. It also discusses recent advances in cold-atoms quantum computing. The experts provided their estimates for the likelihood of developing a quantum computer capable of breaking RSA-2048 encryption within different timeframes, indicating an increasing likelihood as we look further into the future.
The report also examines the impact of societal and funding factors on the development of quantum computers. It notes that while the level of global funding for quantum computing is expected to continue increasing, the pace may not be as rapid as in recent years. The report emphasizes the importance of sustained investments to support the development of a fault-tolerant quantum computer.
The global race to develop a fault-tolerant quantum computer is another critical aspect covered in the report. It discusses the strategic importance of quantum computing for various countries and the significant investments being made in this field. The report highlights North America’s current leadership in quantum computing and the potential for China to become a major player in the near future.
For a detailed analysis and comprehensive insights, you can read the full 2022 Quantum Threat Timeline Report.
